Judge only by the April 15 murders of ex-legislator and alleged mafia don Atiq Ahmed and his brother Ashraf on live TV. In its immediate aftermath, the state is set for local body polls, to be held in two phases, on May 4 and 11. Naturally, with the three assailants downing the dons at close range while they were in police custody, the law and order situation in the state is a pre-poll talking point. But the fear that the incident could polarise the polls on religious lines surpasses that. That’s perhaps why even Opposition parties have not been too vocal in their protests over any aspect relating to the murders.
Experts acknowledge the narrative around CM Yogi Adityanath and his hard-edged tactics against the mafia are a potent theme, and the dynamics of polarisation usually works to the ruling BJP’s advantage. That said, hyper-local issues do not entirely vanish and the Opposition could get a look-in, especially if they manage some sort of tactical understanding. Says Shilp Shikha Singh, political analyst and assistant professor at Lucknow’s Giri Institute of Development Studies: “In urban areas, the BJP seems to have a clear edge for mayoral seats, but in the small towns that vote for nagar panchayats and nagar palikas, there should be some interesting contests between the BJP and the opposition. And not just the Samajwadi Party (SP), even the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress could perform well in several wards.”
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