Global Headwinds May Hit India

India is unlikely to go into a recession, but it will not emerge unscathed if the world goes into one

- K. Sunil Thomas

Jageshwar Sharma vacated his rented single-room tenement in Noida and took a bus to his village in Uttar Pradesh a month ago, after "waiting for weeks to get a new job". The young man had gotten used to the cycle of getting low-paying jobs and being retrenched abruptly ever since the Covid-19 pandemic hit. His new plan is to try for a job closer to home. He has heard that there are many openings at the new Lulu Mall in the city. He is yet to get one, though. "It all gets rather exasperating at times," he said.

The life of Sijo John, another Noida resident, however, may seem a world apart. Executive assistant to the CEO of an entertainment and media giant, John, 34, did not have a pay cut during Covid like many of his friends, and his wife, Merin, who has a quasi-government job, even got a hike after the last Pay Commission. But he calls his financial status precarious. "The price rise has been so massive that my budgets have gone off tangent despite the double income," said John. "It is not difficult to live by, but we are unable to save any money-for investments or for future expenses like kids' education and medical." These laments about jobs and inflation are not the usual litany we hear from time to time. There is something unusual happening around us-a looming global recession, no less, and it may have already bared its fangs upon India.

Caught in a landslide