Putting The Country First Is Only Way Tories Will Survive

If you want to understand how politics may play out over the next few days, you need to be aware of just one key statistic: Labour’s poll lead is now, on average, around 25 per cent.

- Stephen Pollard

We are, of course, in the middle of an economic crisis. That’s what Jeremy Hunt’s statement yesterday abolishing almost all of Kwasi Kwarteng’s miniBudget was designed to start tackling. But the crisis is as much political as economic.

Tory MPs are well aware that Liz Truss may not only have hurt the economy – she could well have damaged the Conservative Party. If Labour was to win the next election by 25 per cent – who is to say that things will necessarily get better for the Tories over the next two years? – then they could well be reduced to around just 50 seats. In other words, near extinction.

This is the critical part of that statistic. According to psephologists – who analyse polling data – if the Conservatives can somehow reduce the deficit from 25 per cent to around 15 per cent, that would likely mean them winning another 150 seats or so. True, that would still be a Labour landslide, but the Tories would be a functioning party in opposition rather than a rag-bag collection of survivors of oblivion.