What Does This Verdict Mean For LS Elections?

As 2018-2019 showed, the outcome of the state assembly elections in critical Hindi heartland states, four months before the Lok Sabha elections, is not an accurate window into the popular mood at the national level. The Congress won Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh comfortably in December 2018; the BJP won 62 of the 65 seats in the Lok Sabha from the three states in 2019.

- Prashant Jha

Still, while the results were never going to be a guide for what will happen in 2024, especially if the BJP lost, the nature of the outcome, where the BJP swept the three states, does suggest the party has a huge advantage heading into the national polls. The Congress did win Telangana, and while it is a remarkable triumph, the verdict doesn’t really resolve the party’s political crisis, an almost existential one, north of the Vindhyas.

Instead, the verdict reveals that Narendra Modi’s appeal and magical connect with voters is firmly intact -- especially in the heartland. It shows that BJP’s organisation remains robust and cadres remain motivated. It deprives the Congress both of power and resources that would have helped during the Lok Sabha polls. And it reinforces the fact that the BJP’s narrative has resonance among voters, while the Congress’s narrative, for all its creativity, doesn’t carry the same appeal. Examine each of these factors separately and the contours of the 2024 battle become clearer.

The Modi puzzle

There is a puzzle when it comes to Modi and state elections. After 2018, Indian politics has witnessed a trend where voters haven’t hesitated to opt for the Congress or regional forces in state elections, even when Modi has been campaigning. Such outcomes have been, accurately, explained as the dominance of local factors over the national because the same voters tell reporters and pollsters that they will vote for the PM during Lok Sabha elections. At the same time, it is also true that Modi’s appeal continues to help in state elections, as it did in this round.