What May Shape The 2024 Elections

With just months left for the LS polls, the BJP appears to have an edge over Opposition. Five factors, ranging from caste to welfare, are likely to influence the outcome

With the results of assembly elections in five states out, the stage is set for next year's ultimate electoral contest

Now that the verdicts from five state assembly elections are in, the eyes of 1.4 billion Indians turn to the country's general elections, expected to be held between April and May 2024.

The state results confirm what is already common knowledge: Headed into 2024, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the clear front-runner. This advantage is principally driven by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's enduring popularity.

According to the Morning Consult global leader tracker, 78% of Indians surveyed in late November approved of Modi's job performance. It is even more remarkable that Modi's approval has been consistent since August 2019.

Domestic opinion polls confirm that Modi's popularity remains intact, further fuelling his party's dominance. The biannual India Today Mood of the Nation poll consistently shows, including as recently as August 2023, that the National DemoF cratic Alliance (NDA) would CARI handily capture a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha (see figure 1).

However, elections are popular demonstrations of the will of the electorate, not preordained coronations. Past experience - not least the previous NDA government's surprise upset in 2004- suggests that Indian voters do not thoughtlessly conform to conventional wisdom. As the road to 2024 begins, five issues are worth watching: The waning predictive power of state elections, the challenge of Opposition coordination, the battle for backward castes, the arms race of competitive welfare, and the emergence of foreign policy as a mass issue.

Limits of State Election Results

First, we must keep in mind the limited predictive power of the recent state assembly polls.