Senior Tories had predicted that bad losses could be enough to push despondent colleagues over the edge, even those who could see that changing leader yet again could be electoral suicide.
"If your constituency chair is on the phone telling you your local association has been wiped out, it's quite difficult to defend 'priced in'," one had said. "MPs aren't on the battlefield this time. It's like the Somme without the generals." Yet within hours of the polls closing on Thursday the Tory rebels had already concluded what many in Westminster had long suspected: they did not have the numbers to force a vote of no confidence.
The Blackpool South byelection result was announced in the early hours of Friday and although a Tory loss was widely expected, the 26% swing to Labour and the surge in support for Reform sent a chill through Conservative headquarters.
Yet despite that, and poor showings in early council results, the anticipated angry outburst from Tory MPs did not follow.
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