Vladimir Putin still wants to fully conquer Ukraine and impose regime change in the belief that Russia's greater numbers in weaponry and soldiers will prevail at the end, according to Western officials.
A series of successes on the frontline, the capture of Avdiivka in the Donbas most notable, and £47bn economic and military aid package for Ukraine blocked in the US Congress, is said to have buoyed the Russian president’s hopes of total occupation.
“We do not believe Russia has given up on its maximalist goals of subjugating Ukraine,” said a senior official as the war enters its third year. Moscow is currently in control of a fifth of Ukraine including the separatist republics in the east and Crimea.
The fresh assessment comes as an opinion poll showed rising pessimism across Europe about the outcome of the war, with only 10 per cent believing that Ukraine can achieve victory.
The study, based on polling in 12 countries for the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a Berlin-based think tank, also found that almost four times that number think that Ukraine must accept a “compromise settlement” without regaining all territory lost to the Russian invasion.
There is also widespread concern in Ukraine and its European allies about what the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House would mean for Ukraine.
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