Political violence resulting from food shortages could soon become a reality

HARD TIMES AHEAD?

- DANIEL WAGNER

The conflict in Ukraine has served to highlight the significance of both Russia and Ukraine in the global food and natural resource supply chain. In 2020, Russia produced about 11% of the global supply of oil, 25% of palladium and 15% of coal. Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, in 2019, Russia and Ukraine jointly produced about a third of the world's supply of wheat, 18% of its corn, and half of its sunflower oil. The top three purchasers of Russian wheat at the time were Egypt, Turkey and Bangladesh (followed by Nigeria, Yemen, Azerbaijan, Sudan, the UAE, Senegal, Vietnam). The top three purchasers of Ukraine's wheat were Egypt, Turkey and Indonesia (followed by the Philippines, Tunisia, Thailand, Morocco, South Korea, Spain and Israel). Russia and Ukraine's failure to provide a reliable supply of wheat to these nations could lead to profound social unrest, with the potential to lead to political violence.

Many of the governments of these countries have consistently struggled to meet the basic needs of their citizens and had already been hit hard by the pandemic. It would not take too much additional strain on the system to prompt individuals who are already marginalized to become violent upon experiencing food shortages.