A Power Cut For India

Afghan setback highlights a recent decline in the country’s geopolitical & economic weight

- Sanjaya Baru

The geopolitical setback in Afghanistan, coming on top of prolonged economic underperformance at home, has begun to raise questions about what ought to be the Union government’s policy priorities and strategic objectives in the near term.

A growing body of opinion has come to recognise that both the external environment and domestic foundations that have facilitated India’s rise as a major power have become more challenging. In the long run India will matter for more and be capable of more but that long-run has just become a little longer.

Recognising this would be the first step towards addressing it. Excessive hubris on the part of a nation’s leadership, a common failing of all populist politics in all democracies, should not cloud sound judgment. The fact is that the global and domestic framework that shaped India’s rise in the post-Cold War period, in the quarter-century from the early 1990s till the mid-2010s, has become weaker.

Over that period India, an ‘emerging’ economy, was viewed as a ‘rising’ power. However, changed circumstances today, at home and abroad, and their likely persistence over the medium term require a reconsideration. As India enters its 75th year it is still an ‘aspirational power’.

Consider the facts. India’s rise in the post-Cold War period has been defined principally by its economic performance. After three decades of annual average growth of national income of around 3.5%, during 1950-80, the economy grew at 5.5% during 1980-2000 and 7.5% thereafter. During the ‘golden era’ of growth, 2003-10, the economy grew at over 8.5%.