For India, it doesn't matter greatly who wins. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has established a rapport with both candidates. The India-US strategic partnership now has bipartisan momentum.
For the rest of the world, however, the contest between Biden and Trump presents a Hobson's choice. A Trump win is dreaded in Europe. Trump has promised to cut military aid to Ukraine and end the Russia-Ukraine war within months of his inauguration as president. Trump's position on the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza is less clear. But the former president is fond of boasting how, on his watch, no new wars erupted.
Biden advocates a sovereign Palestine state living in peace next to Israel. Biden has for decades been the recipient of funds from the American Israel Public Accounts Committee (AIPAC), the powerful pro-Israel lobbying organisation with wealthy Jewish donors. Many are self-declared Zionists. They reject the very idea of a separate sovereign Palestinian state.
Apart from Biden's cognitive infirmity, immigration and inflation are two issues that could swing the election in Trump's favour. The US is deeply polarised. Most states are unchangeably blue (Democratic) or red (Republican). The key swing states are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. Trump is ahead in opinion polls in all four.
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Esta historia es de la edición July 27, 2024 de BW Businessworld.
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