'WE HAVEN'T HAD A SERIOUS RECESSION IN A WHILE'

Saugata Saha, President of Global Commodity Insights at S&P, talks about the slowing economy and the cloudy outlook for commodities

- MANISH PANT

SAUGATA SAHA, 46, is among the youngest vertical heads at S&P, the global financial data analytics conglomerate. Joining the group in 2014 from McKinsey & Company, Saha was elevated to President of Global Commodity Insights in January last year. During his recent visit to India, the Kolkata boy spoke to BT on a wide range of issues from the prospect of a global economic slowdown to the outlook for commodities and energy transition. Edited excerpts:

This is a significant geopolitical timeframe where global supply chains have either been disrupted or even collapsed. So, what’s your forecast in the near and medium term for the commodity market? 

These are unprecedented times. We are indeed living in a situation where there are some very interesting geopolitical events happening. There are inflationary pressures across the world. There’s a recessionary outlook in some parts. The labour markets in some ways have [been] severely disrupted in many parts, and then there are supply chain disruptions. There are some mitigating factors like the threat of a recession. If that happens, that becomes a bit of a relief valve on commodity prices. But supply chain disruptions and geopolitical events, and also in certain parts, higher demand for certain commodity classes, will keep prices high. So, our outlook is that commodity prices will remain elevated in the foreseeable future.

Countries like India are giving priority to provisioning staple food grains like wheat for their populations. Will this aggravate the challenge?