TOP 50 SHARE AND PROPERTY BUYS

Positive thinking prevails

- TERRY RYDER

After a challenging year for property and shares,our experts – Hotspotting’s Terry Ryder and Saxo Markets’ Jessica Amir – reveal where they see the best value in 2023

There is a growing chorus of real estate analysts who are forecasting that residential p I property prices will rise in 2023. In contrast to the predictions of economists working for the big banks and other institutions, specialist property researchers see prices growing in the year ahead.

No one is forecasting rises like the ones we saw in 2021, when the national average was above 25%. Rather, most analysts are suggesting moderate growth. That's certainly how we see it at Hotspotting.

FORECASTS FROM THE FULL-TIME SPECIALISTS

Experienced research professional Louis Christopher, of SQM Research, recently published his annual Housing Boom and Bust report, in which he stated, as his base-case scenario, that house prices would rise in all capital cities except Darwin.

Christopher presents a range of scenarios, which assume particular outcomes with interest rates, inflation and unemployment.

Under his base case, he broadly assumes unemployment will not rise very high, inflation will peak and then come down and the Reserve Bank will stop lifting the official interest rate in the first half of 2023.

He is projecting solid price growth across Australia generally, with the capital city average being a rise of up to 7%. Sydney will do best, with prices rising by almost 10%, with Perth next at 8%. At Hotspotting, we think he's being quite conservative in his forecasts.

Simon Pressley, of Propertyology, one of the few analysts to predict the 2020-21 boom, is also forecasting positive price outcomes in the coming year.