The future has never seemed so uncertain. Faced with climate change, war in Ukraine, a pandemic, the worst inflation in a generation, a bellicose China, extremist politics, and, God help us, a dodgy All Blacks team, the world seems bound for hell in a handcart.
Well, don't panic. The world will likely be just fine, says British journalist and futurologist Hamish McRae. He has read the economic tea leaves, studied the demographic entrails and decoded the geopolitical tarot cards and believes, on the balance of probabilities, the world will not only still be here a generation from now, it will likely be abetter place to live for more people than at any time in history.
Though not an entirely sunny vision of the next 30 years, McRae’s book The World in 2050 lays out a global future that, on the whole, will be calmer, healthier and richer; its people better educated. Hopefully, too, we'll be coping with climate change.
Cock-eyed optimism? Possibly. Bound to be wrong? Time will tell. For McRae, it is the thinking about, and talking through, what will happen next that is the thing.
“I passionately want to help people think about the future,” he tells the Listener. We all make assumptions about it. What I want to do is help people make those in an orderly way. If I make a prediction, then at least someone can test their own judgment against it. That’s the useful thing.”
History is littered with the corpses of failed prognostications, of course. Lest we forget such wildly ill-judged predictions as democracy being dead by 1950, homes full of robot servants by 1980, the iPhone being too expensive to find a market, and the forecast, in 2008, that Auckland house prices were about to slump by 30%.
Esta historia es de la edición October 29, 2022 de New Zealand Listener.
Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 9,000 revistas y periódicos.
Ya eres suscriptor ? Conectar
Esta historia es de la edición October 29, 2022 de New Zealand Listener.
Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 9,000 revistas y periódicos.
Ya eres suscriptor? Conectar
First-world problem
Harrowing tales of migrants attempting to enter the US highlight the political failure to fully tackle the problem.
Applying intelligence to AI
I call it the 'Terminator Effect', based on the premise that thinking machines took over the world.
Nazism rears its head
Smirky Höcke, with his penchant for waving with a suspiciously straight elbow and an open palm, won't get to be boss of either state.
Staying ahead of the game
Will the brave new world of bipartisanship that seems to be on offer with an Infrastructure Commission come to fruition?
Grasping the nettle
Broccoli is horrible. It smells, when being cooked, like cat pee.
Hangry? Eat breakfast
People who don't break their fast first thing in the morning report the least life satisfaction.
Chemical reaction
Nitrates in processed meats are well known to cause harm, but consumed from plant sources, their effect is quite different.
Me and my guitar
Australian guitarist Karin Schaupp sticks to the familiar for her Dunedin concerts.
Time is on my side
Age does not weary some of our much-loved musicians but what keeps them on the road?
The kids are not alright
Nuanced account details how China's blessed generation has been replaced by one consumed by fear and hopelessness.