CIVIL LIBERTIES: WHERE WAS THE MIDTERM PUBLIC SAFETY BACKLASH?

DESPITE PREDICTIONS THAT rising violent crime would sink candidates who support criminal justice reforms, those candidates mostly survived their 2022 midterm elections. What's more, reform-minded prosecutor and sheriff candidates defeated incumbents in a few key races.

After the recall last year of progressive San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin, opponents of criminal justice reform were confident that voters' concerns about high crime in the COVID-19 era would translate into a national backlash. Polling seemed to back them up: An ABC/Washington Post poll released in September found that 52 percent of respondents favored the Republican Party to handle crime, compared to 38 percent preferring Democrats. In a Greenberg Research survey that asked voters what they feared most if Democrats won full control of the government, 56 percent of respondents chose "crime and homelessness out of control in cities and police coming under attack." "Criminal justice reform faces political buzzsaw as GOP hones its midterm message," was how one Politico headline from April put it.

But while rising crime created headwinds for candidates who supported criminal justice reform, the apocalyptic storm never quite arrived.

Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul survived a challenge by Republican candidate Lee Zeldin, despite attacks linking her to the state's bail reforms and an endless stream of New York Post headlines depicting New York City as a gore-soaked hellscape. It was still a very good night for New York Republicans, but not good enough to put them over the top.