THE FIFTH DIMENSION

Drafting Indonesia into the Quad and developing the Andaman and Nicobar Islands could help India deal with the long-term maritime threat posed by China

- BRIGADIER P.K.G. MISHRA (RETD)

“If you know your enemy and yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained, you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle,” said ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu.

So let us know what China, which would remain our biggest concern, would likely be in 2047.

When free India turns 100 in 2047, Hong Kong would have completed its 50 years of ‘free’ existence, and would have to merge with China, fulfilling the arrangement that was made in 1997 when it got Hong Kong back from Great Britain after a 100-year lease. By then, something significant even on the Taiwan front also cannot be ruled out. Since one has to consider the worst-case scenario while planning, let us assume that in 2047 both Hong Kong and Taiwan would be under China’s control. This means China would have effective control of the Strait of Malacca, through which more than 20 per cent of the global trade and 60 per cent of China’s maritime trade take place.