What is your understanding of the market currently with brewing tensions in West Asia?
The recent market pullback following an extended bull-run should not be mistaken for a bear market. It is a minor correction after a significant rise in valuations. Several factors have contributed to this pullback, including escalating tensions in West Asia and a slowdown in earnings growth momentum compared to previous periods. Additionally, optimism around a potential Chinese market recovery, driven by expectations of stimulus after a prolonged downturn, has played a role.
The major concern arising from the West Asia tensions is the potential spike in crude oil prices, which could disrupt the Indian economy as the country is a large importer of crude. Rising oil prices can drive up inflation and worsen the trade balance. If tensions escalate further, it could lead to an uncontrollable increase in oil prices, hence market sentiment may remain subdued for some time.
Do you see a rally if the war stays local? Which sectors are you betting on in India?
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