Theo put the equivalent of at least $30 million in bets on a Trump victory on the crypto currency betting site Polymarket. He may have received winnings of somewhere between $48 million and $84 million, according to various analysts. Theo bet on an Electoral College victory, Trump winning in four key swing states, and a win of the popular vote for the Republican.
He claims to have placed these bets based on polls he commissioned using a reputed US pollster. What is really interesting is the way those polls were designed—instead of asking voters about their own preferences, they were asked to predict who their neighbours would vote for.
According to Theo, the neighbour polls showed strong preferences for Trump in states where standard opinion polls were tied within very narrow margins. One caveat: It is impossible to judge the veracity of Theo's statements, as he has refused to share any details about the polls, or even the name of the pollster he hired.
But this type of polling is not unknown. It teases out information by looking at revealed preferences rather than stated preferences. We do it all the time as individuals.
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