Rupee likely to gain currency in Apr-Jun

Govt bond inclusion in JP Morgan index to boost $ inflows, say economists

- ANJALI KUMARI

The rupee, having depreciated 0.6 per cent against the US dollar in March, so far, is likely to rebound in April, largely on the back of foreign inflows ahead of India's government bond inclusion in JP Morgan's Government Bond IndexEmerging Markets (GBIEM), set to begin at the end of June 2024.

By the close of April, the local currently is projected to hover around the 83 per dollar mark, according to a Business Standard poll of nine respondents.

"In the near term, dollar strength could persist with the risk of Federal Reserve rate cut getting delayed if core inflation in the US remains firm. The sharp upward move in the USDINR on Friday reflects the impact of dollar strength resurfacing," said Gaura Sengupta, economist at IDFC First Bank. "That said, we expect INR appreciation in FY25 with a pick-up in capital inflows with India's inclusion into the JP Morgan EM bond Index. Moreover, the current account deficit is expected to be moderate in FY25, assuming crude oil price averaging at $85 per barrel."

On Friday, the Indian rupee hit a new low of 83.43 against the US dollar, a result of weakness among its Asian counterparts and sustained demand for dollars from local importers.