Trust in economic justice has completely collapsed

THE economy, stupid": rarely have three words been so debased by overuse as the campaign message coined by James Carville, Bill Clinton's chief strategist in the 1992 US presidential race; a slogan which has been the inspiration of countless headlines in the past three decades.

- Matthew d’Ancona

Tomorrow, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt will be hoping that Carville's maxim does indeed hold true that, in politics, the economy is what matters most - as the Chancellor delivers his Autumn Statement. After a week of mayhem, Downing Street badly needs a clear win.

By definition, what Hunt has to say about personal and business tax rates, benefit rules and pension reform will be financially consequential for millions of people. But even if the Chancellor pulls a rabbit out of the hat, he absolutely cannot assume that a significant political dividend will follow.

For evidence that this is so, Hunt need only look across the Atlantic where Joe Biden's 81st birthday yesterday coincided with his lowest approval ratings to date. By any objective standard, the US president's economic strategy has been a success, marked by the Inflation Reduction Act, $1 trillion Infrastructure legislation, low unemployment, falling inflation and encouraging post-Covid levels of growth.