Technology will make the pace of change even faster

ONE OF THE most reliable observations any opinion writer can make, myself included, is that the pace of change has accelerated.

- Tyler Cowen

But in the last few years it actually has—as evidenced by the war and conflict around the world, the politics in the US and major advances in artificial intelligence. I expect this trend to continue in 2025, especially as it relates to technology.

Advances in AI, including artificial general intelligence, are likely to continue—but it's unclear how much of a difference they'll make. As I have lately taken to asking: "What if they gave an AGI and nobody came?" (It's a riff on the old query about war.)

By the end of 2025, it will be evident to most educated observers that the best AI models can beat most experts on intellectual tests. It will beat me on an economics test, I have no doubt. More than that, AI will outdo the experts in its use of expertise: It is already outperforming human doctors at medical diagnosis, for example.

The bigger surprise will be how little all this matters, at least at first. Sadly, our society is not arranged in such a way that additional increments of intelligence, even if inexpensive, can be smartly deployed. Instead, this new intelligence bumps up against systems that are all too human, with their rules, regulations, and need for permissions.