The average fourth innings run rate this year has been 3.48 but England have been going about it at 3.54 runs per over. The psychological barrier however is 378/5, England's highest fourth-innings score in a victory since June 2022 when they went "Bazball".
That Edgbaston Test, on a rather abrasive surface against an India attack comprising Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Shami, Mohammed Siraj, Shardul Thakur and Ravindra Jadeja, England won in 76.4 overs going at a run rate of 4.93. Australia bowlers are equally skilled, a couple of clicks quicker, but also without Nathan Lyon. Still, they have already bagged four wickets. Not casting doubts on England's ability which really starts to show No. 4 onwards, but there is a higher probability of Australia producing six wicket-taking balls from here than England winning the Lord's Test.
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