Deficit, excess, deficit: Uneven rains mark monsoon this year

Monsoon 2023 has been a story of swings, and as the months progressed, the variations only became more intense: 9% deficient in June, excess by 13% in July, deficient again by 36% in August and, finally in September, excess by 13%.

- Jayashree Nandi

By October, the annual summer rain-bearing system retreats from most of the country, leaving only patchy spells of precipitation behind. But the coming month is likely to be consistent with the wild swings seen this year, with two low-pressure areas over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea bringing in moisture over land.

Experts said there is little understanding of what has caused this wobbling pattern, but added that it is a sign of things to come as the climate enters uncharted territory with human activity over decades having pushed warming to unprecedented levels.

“This year monsoon was very interesting. It is not a very text book pattern. Even though we may end up with 6% deficiency, there are close to 70% districts under mild [deficient] category or worse,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences and climate scientist, adding that a number of global climatological phenomenon may have led to this.