Myanmar's long journey into the night continues

Myanmar, the physical gateway and link between South Asia and Southeast Asia, continues to be “the sick man of the region”. Thirty-two months after the 2021 military coup, the nation remains mired in a cycle of violence between the military and opposition forces, bringing untold misery to the people, denial of humanitarian aid, and eroding political stability.

- Rajiv Bhatia

In the preceding weeks, numerous diplomatic efforts were made in the quest for a solution. What has been the overall impact, and what are the immediate possibilities for this unfortunate nation that has had to put up with military rule for 60 years since independence in January 1948? Can it find its way back to the past decade of at least limited democracy which ran from March 2011 to January 2021?

A careful review of recent political and security developments reveals several important trends. First, battles between army units and People’s Defence Force continue in various parts of the country, including the Burmese heartland. Consequently, the army has been under pressure to recruit more and to stop losing control over territory.

A former army officer who defected to the opposition observed, “The regime lacks combat forces. The casualties keep rising and soldiers are sent from checkpoints to the frontlines, leaving gaps.” Second, continued fighting has resulted in the internal displacement of over 1.6 million people, with tens of thousands of Burmese seeking shelter in neighbouring countries, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.