RBI pegs FY25 growth at 7%, inflation at 4.5%

THE MARKETS TANKED AROUND 1%, DRAGGED DOWN BY BANKING AND AUTO SHARES

- Roshan Kishore

The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the sixth time in a row, citing global uncertainty and the need to bring down retail inflation to 4%, and said that it expects GDP growth in the next financial year to be at 7%.

While the tangible decisions of the MPC policy rate and monetary policy stance - have both remained unchanged in keeping with market expectations, the tone of the MPC resolution borders on the hawkish and has added an element of delay to the timeline of ratecuts.

"Monetary policy must continue to be actively disinflationary to align inflation to the target of 4% on a durable basis", Governor Shaktikanta Das said in his statement after the bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI on Thursday.

To be sure, RBI's overzealous take on fighting inflation might also be a result of the fact that domestic growth continues to be strong - next year's 7% would be the third consecutive year growth will have been above that number if the forecast comes to bear and headwinds to growth are more likely from external than domestic factors.

In what was the last MPC meeting for the fiscal year 2023-24 and before the 2024 general elections, the central bank stuck to its guns on the need to prioritise inflation targeting over growth in the wake of elevated geopolitical risks and supply side-driven shocks to food inflation. These downside risks, the MPC noted, call for a continuation of the withdrawal of the accommodation stance of monetary policy.