Shortage of snowfall in hills may lead to a warmer spring

Dry, snowless peaks have cast a shadow on tourism in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh but impact of the underlying causes on next few months is far more worrying -- for they could portend a warmer spring.

The absence of active western disturbances and shortage of rain and snow will have implications for Rabi (winter) crop and are suggestive of high temperatures early in spring, experts said. In December, the rain deficiency was 79% over Jammu and Kashmir, 85% over Himachal Pradesh, 75% over Uttarakhand, and 70% over Punjab.

And thus far in January, there has been no rain over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Rajasthan and Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi region, according to data from India Meteorological Department. There has been hardly any snow in the upper reaches of Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh which normally see a boom in tourism following snowfall.

The absence of snow cover over mountains also means the hills and plains will absorb more heat, possibly leading to an early onset of summer like temperatures, the experts added.

"Western disturbances have been very few this season," said DS Pai, senior scientist at IMD, referring to cyclonic systems originating over the Mediterranean. "There has been below normal rainfall activity over the northern-most parts of the country. If there is no system to produce precipitation then snowfall will not happen. When there is snow cover, it helps in reflecting back the solar radiation, but if there is no snow cover, heating is expected to be more during spring." Typically, December and January sees at least one 1-2 western disturbances.