2025 - Looking Forward

2025 demands India recalibrate its grand strategy amid shifting power dynamics in Asia, balancing regional engagement, economic integration, and pragmatic diplomacy to secure prosperity, modernity, and security; writes Raghav Ghei

- writes Raghav Ghei

amir Saran's recent column in the Indian Express claims great power shifts will alter Indian foreign policy. True. Yet, the battleground that a transitioning world order finds today is Asia. The region witnesses intense militarization, political fragmentation, and bitter geopolitical disputes. EAM Dr S Jaishankar recently mentioned an "over the horizon" grand strategy for India's external outlook. Yet 2024 threw up many "known unknowns": Bangladeshi regime displacement, Nepal joining the BRI, and India-China disengagement amid a colourful year. The after-effects - still unfolding - remain "unknown unknowns". Vajpayee was right when he said we could not choose our neighbours - the "first concentric circle" in Dr Jaishankar's worldview. Yet, what we can choose is the degree of engagement.

There is no question that India must engage with the world - her responsibilities, capabilities, and interests have grown far too many to only strive for a regional order. She must aim to be a responsible stakeholder in the international system that fulfils her three targets of citizen prosperity, modernity, and security. At the risk of being fatally deterministic, this article attempts to analyze what 2025 looks like for how we engage with the subcontinent. The piece uses a lens of history to predict the future since history repeats itself.