Investors are optimistic about the muted outlook for crude oil prices and anticipate a robust December quarter (Q3FY24), driven by resilient marketing margins even as outlook for refining margins appears muted. Brent crude oil prices have come off from the recent highs of around $95 per barrel in September to hover around $76.3 per barrel at present.
For now, concerns about near-term surge in crude oil prices have been mitigated. In a meeting on 30 November, Opec+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia) agreed to lower oil production by 2.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024. Oil prices have not reacted meaningfully to the news, even as the cuts amount to around 2% of global supply. One reason could be it is insufficient to counter the growth in non-Opec output. Besides, concerns over a weakening global economy continue to weigh on the markets.
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