Was COP-28 a cop-out or did the conference achieve something?

Each country should ideally have a fair share of the remaining global carbon budget and adequate access to climate finance

- MONTEK SINGH AHLUWALIA

CoP-28 attracted over 84,000 participants to Dubai, more than twice the previous high at CoP-26. The officials actually engaged in negotiating the final text were far fewer. The others were individuals from NGOs, scientific institutions and think-tanks, philanthropies and the international corporate sector.

The ‘climate fest’ atmosphere may have helped focus international attention in that week on the very serious threats posed by climate change. Whether it also contributed to solving the problem is another matter. UN resolutions are traditionally littered with clauses "recognizing," "noting" and "reiterating" what earlier statements have said. The UAE Consensus is no exception. The question to ask is whether, after cutting through the clutter, there is forward movement. The answer is mixed.

CoP-28 was truly unique in one respect. It was the first of the "global stocktakes" mandated by the Paris Agreement to take place every five years to record the state of progress on climate action and to serve as a "ratchet" to accelerate action if needed. The UAE Consensus has delivered fully on this score. It recognizes that the world is not on track to meet the target of limiting global warming to "below 2° C and ideally 1.5° C" above pre-industrial levels by 2100. If countries implement only their unconditional pledges, expected global warming will be +2.9° Celsius by the end of this century! If all countries actually took the actions needed to achieve their stated net-zero pledges, global warming would still be around 2.1° Celsius.

Experts have said this for some time, but the Consensus now makes it the official view of all signatory countries. The ratchet mechanism has also been triggered because all countries have been asked to consider committing to stronger steps in the new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due by 2025 .