Why the Israel-Palestine conflict is unlikely to end in our lifetime

Geopolitical interests are ranged against each other in such a way that the constituency for peace is left tragically powerless

- RAGHU RAMAN

Analysts termed 7 October 2023 as Israel’s 9/11 or India’s 26/11. A better comparison of Israel’s black day, however, would be with the Kargil incursion suffered by India. In February 1999, India and Pakistan were close to reaching a peace accord. It would have unshackled both countries from hugely wasteful defence expenditure. However, one party would have lost ground—the Pakistani Army. The cliche about most countries having an army but the Pakistani army having a country is true. The Pakistani army indeed calls all the shots in Pakistan and there was no way it would risk losing its pole position and end up playing virtually no fiddle, like its Indian counterpart. And hence the Kargil incursion was launched. While India may have ‘won’ the war at a tactical level, both New Delhi and Islamabad lost the chance of a rapprochement that could have altered the economic growth trajectory of both nations, strengthening both economies. It was one occasion when a military general outsmarted two seasoned politicians. By the end of the year, Nawaz Sharif was in exile and General Pervez Musharraf was the CEO of Pakistan. A few thousand lives are small change in this game of high-stakes geopolitics.

There are more countries with a vested interest in keeping the Israel-Palestine issue alive than in resolving it. When resources reduce and contenders increase, conflict can become inevitable, and a fight for global and regional dominance finds its boundaries and fault-lines. Israel and Palestine have been subject to geopolitical architecture to reach such a point.