Von der Leyen, a German Christian Democrat, was jubilant after her European People's party (EPP) secured 186 of the 720 seats in the European elections, maintaining its 25-year hold as the largest group and leaving her a narrow path to a second term.
But she has been presented with a wild card: the French president, Emmanuel Macron's decision to call snap elections after his Renaissance party came a dismal second to Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally.
Von der Leyen, the first woman to lead the commission, was the EPP's lead candidate and is in pole position.
With the uncertainty of French elections in the mix, she has to clear two hurdles. First she needs the backing of a qualified majority of EU leaders, then an absolute majority-361 votes - in the new European parliament.
EU leaders are expected to take a decision on her appointment as part of a package of top jobs at a two-day summit starting on 27 June, just before the first round of French parliamentary elections on 30 June.
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