The justice department acknowledged that a combination of rising prosecutions, politicians bringing in higher maximum sentences, and soaring numbers of people on remand - meaning they are in jail awaiting trial or sentencing - is responsible for the projected rise.
The prison population, which currently stands at 86,000, is forecast to increase to between 95,700 and 105,200 by March 2029, with a central estimate of 100,800, figures published yesterday show.
The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) cited factors including "continued growth" in the number of suspects being charged and prosecuted, more cases coming to court, the "rising levels of people on remand" - which has increased by 87% since 2019 and stands at a record high - and "changes in sentencing policy and behaviour to keep the most serious offenders in prison for longer".
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