Keir Starmer will promise to "embrace the harsh light of fiscal reality" today as his chancellor prepares a budget that will include billions of pounds' worth of tax rises and spending cuts.
The prime minister will give a speech in the West Midlands defending Labour's approach to the economy, as Rachel Reeves prepares to announce what she promises will be as momentous a budget as any in the party's history.
On Wednesday the chancellor will set out a major boost to capital spending, paid for by higher borrowing, a series of tax rises and an immediate squeeze on departmental budgets.
But with days to go until the announcement, senior Labour figures are concerned they will be punished by voters for raising national insurance contributions, despite having promised not to do so in their election manifesto.
The prime minister will bat away such concerns in his speech today, insisting that working people need better public services more than lower taxes.
"It is working people who pay the price when their government fails to deliver economic stability," he will say. "They've had enough of slow growth, stagnant living standards and crumbling public services."
He will add: "It's time to choose a clear path, and embrace the harsh light of fiscal reality so we can come together behind a credible, long-term plan. It's time we ran towards the tough decisions, because ignoring them set us on the path of decline. It's time we ignored the populist chorus of easy answers...we're never going back to that."
Starmer's speech marks an attempt by the prime minister to head off criticism ahead of one of the most important weeks for his premiership so far.
At the heart of Reeves's budget will be a major increase in national insurance contributions paid by employers.
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