Thornberry told Sky News yesterday that the government's decision to announce a date for the budget of early March - the earliest date in 13 years apart from during the pandemic - "seems to confirm" that May is the most likely date.
The party has been preparing for a May contest despite most of Westminster expecting Rishi Sunak to wait until the autumn or winter. Leaving it to the latest possible time would give the Conservatives more hope of recovering in the polls, where they trail Labour by 15-20 points.
The decision to announce a budget on 6 March, with the possibility of hefty tax cuts, still leaves open the option of a May election should the prime minister's fortunes improve.
If he fails to call an election in May, Labour may start to spread the narrative that Sunak is a "bottler" and "squatting" in Downing Street, which were the tactics used by the Conservatives against Gordon Brown in 2009 and 2010.
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