Study suggests 1.7m people could have dementia by 2040

Dementia poses an "enormous threat" to healthcare systems and the general public in England and Wales, experts have warned, as data suggests 1.7 million people will have the condition by 2040.

- Andrew Gregory

It is already known to be among the most serious health and social care threats, but a new analysis shows the total number affected could be 42% higher than previously estimated.

The research was published in the Lancet public health journal. It says the "burden on health and social care might be considerably larger than currently forecast". Led by University College London (UCL), the study updated previous work suggesting the number of cases would reach 1.2 million people in 2040.

"Dementia incidence followed a non-linear trend in England and Wales with a declining trend from 2002 to 2008 and an increased trend from 2008 to 2016," the researchers wrote. "If the upward incidence trend continues, along with population ageing, the number of people with dementia in England and Wales is projected to increase to 1.7 million in 2040." The rate decreased by 29% between 2002 and 2008 but rose by a quarter between 2008 and 2016, according to the study.