This is the model for the "extinction-level event" experienced by a previously dominant rightwing party - one which, some Tory opponents of Rishi Sunak warn, he risks emulating at the upcoming general election. The basic and, for Tory MPs, chilling facts are that in October 1993 the Progressive Conservative party, in power in Canada since 1984, slumped from 167 federal seats to just two, eventually leading to its dissolution and merger into the new Conservative Party of Canada.
There are some curiously precise parallels: a complacent conservative incumbent that had recently ditched its leader (Kim Campbell replacing Brian Mulroney), was struggling with the economy and faced a new, insurgent rightwing party - also called Reform.
Arguably the most pertinent common ground is the fact that Canada, like Westminster, uses first past the post (FPTP), a system that can greatly distort the way votes turn into MPs - in 1993 the Progressive Conservatives got 16% of the vote and ended up with less than 1% of the seats.
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