In his first major speech in his new role, Richard Horne, the head of GCHQ's National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), will cite a trebling of "severe" incidents amid Russian "aggression and recklessness" and China's "highly sophisticated" digital operations.
Horne will say hostile activity in UK cyberspace has increased in "frequency, sophistication and intensity" from enemies seeking to cause maximum disruption and destruction.
Speaking at the NCSC's London HQ, Horne will point to "the aggression and recklessness of cyber activity we see coming from Russia" and how "China remains a highly sophisticated cyber actor, with increasing ambition to project its influence beyond its borders."
Horne, who took on the role in October, will add: "And yet, despite all this, we believe the severity of the risk facing the UK is being widely underestimated."
One expert said the comments were a "klaxon" call to companies and public sector organisations to wake up to the scale of the cyber threat facing the UK.
Horne's warning came as the NCSC revealed a significant increase in serious cyber incidents over the past 12 months. Its annual review showed that the agency had responded to 430 incidents requiring its support between 1 September 2023 and 31 August 2024, compared with 371 in the previous 12 months. It said that 12 of those attacks were at the "top end of the scale" and were "more severe in nature" - a trebling from the previous year.
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