Can war in the Middle East be won by military might?

Mike Crofts examines the balance of power across the region

- Mike Crofts

Escalating retaliatory strikes signify the severity of the situation between Israel and Iran. Tuesday's strike was more aggressive than the response in April by Iran to the Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus, which killed Mohammad Zahedi, the IRGC commander of the Quds Force.

April’s attack consisted of 300 drones, which were largely neutralised by Israel’s Iron Dome, the joint US-Israeli aerial protection system that shoots down rockets. Tuesday night’s attack consisted of approximately 180 ballistic missiles delivering a more devastating payload, albeit countered in part by the Iron Dome.

Even Iran could not have anticipated the vehemence with which Israel would respond to the 7 October attacks. Israel’s latest switch to focus on the systematic dismantling of Hezbollah’s senior leadership in a single week has left Iran’s quest for regional hegemonic control in tatters. But whilst Hezbollah’s leadership is wounded, the force should not be underestimated.

Hezbollah, said to be the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor, is located in the predominantly Shia south of Lebanon, and has an armed force equivalent in size to the British army – approximately 100,000. This is amazing, given that Hezbollah is not the official Lebanese army. It is equipped with heavy tanks and weaponry estimated to include between 100,000 and 150,000 rockets, which have been inflicting damage on Israel since the day after the 7 October attacks.