Putin no longer masters the international chessboard

Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia has now lasted more than a week. The longer Kyiv's forces push forward, the more political as well as military - obstacles mount for Vladimir Putin. The inability of the Russian army to reverse the seizure of Russian territory and prevent a refugee outflow from the area is moving from an embarrassment to a crisis.

- MARK ALMOND

How President Putin handles the coming days will determine whether or not the military situation - as well as politics closer to home in the Kremlin - will slip from his grasp. Not even Russia has limitless trained troops on standby to fill gaps in the line. But its real problem is at the top. Competent generals and staff officers are essential to improvising on the battlefield.

Putin has often been slow to make personnel changes; keeping trustees in post even when they have failed to live up to their responsibilities. Loyalty has trumped competence.

In recent weeks, heads have rolled - but generally sideways among veteran post-holders in the ministry of defence; not least the former minister, Sergei Shoigu. But the chief of the general staff, Gennady Gerasimov, is still in post two-and-a-half years after his invasion plan hit the buffers. The border hole exploited by the Ukrainians shows he had not planned for such a contingency.

Putin's turn to the security services to take charge of the crisis zone shows his lack of confidence in his generals. The new crisis manager, Alexei Dyumin, is a security and intelligence veteran, who once served as Putin's own bodyguard.