THE SHADOW WAR BEING WAGED IN MYANMAR

ON the bright sunny day of March 30, 2012, I was in a beeline of visitors that included journalists, diplomats and members of the multilateral community at the picturesque Yangon residence of the National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi on University Avenue Road overlooking Inya Lake.

The NLD leader, elegantly dressed and witty in conversation, was supposed to hold a press conference on the occasion of her party contesting by-elections for 48 vacant parliamentary seats on April 1. This was the NLD's first electoral contest after it had won the 1991 election, whose results the country's military had refused to accept.

The 2012 by-elections was a significant milestone in Myanmar's tumultuous modern history. Aung San Suu Kyi was cautiously hopeful about the future. The Rohingya crisis in 2016 and 2017 followed by the 2021 coup ended this hope as Suu Kyi and members of her NLD-led government were arrested. This July 31, for the sixth time, the Myanmar junta extended the state of emergency for another six months and defended its decision that it needs time to prepare for the long-promised elections. Under the country's 2008 Constitution, the emergency decree empowers the military to assume all state functions.

The extension was not a surprise as more than 40 percent of the country's territory is outside the grip of the military. Most of the fierce infighting is being reported across the periphery. There are pockets of resistance even within the ethnic Bamar heartland that forms the majority of the country.

While it is difficult to pinpoint with precision the exact trajectory of the country, there are enough clues in Myanmar's history, geography, demographics and external influences that can shed some light on present and future developments.