Phl likely missed 2023 growth target

While some economists believe the Philippine economy likely grew faster in the fourth quarter, the overall expansion in 2023 is still expected to fall short of the six to seven percent target penned by the government’s economic managers.

- LAWRENCE AGCAOILI

Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth likely accelerated to 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 after picking up to 5.9 percent in the third quarter from 4.3 percent in the second quarter.

However, Ricafort said that despite the faster growth rate in the fourth quarter, the fullyear 2023 growth likely slowed to 5.8 percent compared to the previous year ’s 7.6 percent expansion due to the higher borrowing costs that dampened the spending power of consumers and businesses.

“For the fourth quarter of 2023, the major economic growth drivers are the higher government spending, especially on infrastructure, the barangay election-related spending toward the end of October, as well as the continued recovery for many businesses as the economy further reopened toward greater normalcy,” he said.

Ricafort also cited higher sales as well as the remittances from overseas Filipino workers during the Christmas holiday spending season.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to announce the 2023 fourth quarter economic performance on Jan. 31.

UnionBank chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion said the economy likely grew at a faster pace of 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter from 5.9 percent in the third quarter.

“Our fourth quarter GDP growth forecast yielded a growth forecast in the range of 5.1 to 6.2 percent year-onyear. This predicted range corresponds to a seasonally adjusted, quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.1 percent to 3.2 percent,” Asuncion said.