
As pundits, politicians and public commentators intensely debate the election results, I caution against hyperbole and overinterpretation of what was, in reality, a close race, though the margin of victory looks wider than it actually is, due to the special quirk of the electoral college system. This, together with the geographic concentration of party affiliation and just two political parties dominating American politics, has made most of the state-by-state election results mundanely predictable.
Ultimately, U.S. presidential elections are decided by a small group of "swing" voters in a handful of states.
Drawing overarching conclusions from an election like this, regarding what issues are most important to Americans, is probably unwise, though everyone seems intent on doing just that! That said, and with all the relevant caveats in mind, what can we learn from these choices? Republicans got a new mandate this year, however small. Aside from the presidential race, several seats in both houses of Congress flipped, leading from a slight Democratic control to a slight Republican control.
What drove this? Many hot-button issues were widely discussed this year and probably had a real impact (even if the extent of it is exaggerated by talking heads feverishly pushing their pet theories). One key issue was the economy, as always. The Democrats' verbal assertions to the contrary, most Americans, are not experiencing any economic recovery. The stock market might be hot, but prices of everyday necessities are record high, and middle-class incomes are stagnant. Many people are concerned about the Democrats' handling of the unprecedented influx of asylum seekers. Many areas around the country, which were ravaged by widespread riots of 2020, are still struggling with crime spikes and destroyed local businesses and infrastructure. These kinds of problems usually work against incumbents.
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