Aged folk, health crises: Swiss Re's Paul Murray has plenty on his mind

Resistance to antibiotics set to pose huge healthcare challenge, says senior executive at reinsurer

- Ravi Velloor

In the years he used to live in Singapore, Mr Paul Murray would often watch the elderly move around Ghim Moh Market, one of his favourite haunts in the city. Over the years, there seemed to be more of the aged folk – an observation relevant to his work as CEO for the life and health division at reinsurance giant Swiss Re.

Mr Murray was not wrong. Singapore's old-age support ratio – the ratio of people aged between 20 and 64 to those 65 and over – declined from 7.4 in 2010 to 4.3 in 2020, and further to 3.5 in 2024. Some projections are that it could dip to 1.5 by 2050, testing family values severely as the productive cohort needs to take care of two, perhaps eventually even three generations.

"Japan has been through this," says the Zurich-based Mr Murray. "It transforms the way governments make policy – fewer people working and more dependent people. Less tax, more welfare requirements."

For insurers, though, this means more business. As people plan for their increasingly lengthening twilight years, they realise they need to set aside more money for that time of life. This feeds into demand for insurance products, especially those that cover critical illnesses, and also offer some financial returns alongside.

The prevailing higher-for-longer interest rate environment – Swiss Re had assets under management of some US$111 billion (S$150 billion) in 2023 – also helps insurers get better returns on their investments.

"We are in a very good environment now," says Mr Murray.

Fifteen years ago, when the durian-loving Scotsman arrived in Asia, insurance markets in the region were in a development phase. Since then, they have grown rapidly. The Asia-Pacific region provides nearly a quarter of Swiss Re's US$15.6 billion earned in life and health, and fee income, in 2023.

A lot of what the firm underwrites is for "critical illness", which in some markets can number more than 100 diseases these days. That's a mixed blessing.