China's new youth jobless rate does little to quell scepticism

Excluding students only adds to pessimism about country’s economic growth: Analysts

- Lim Min Zhang

China has resumed reporting youth unemployment figures in its monthly published economic data using a new methodology, after abruptly withdrawing the jobless rate months ago.

The numbers announced in January appear to be significantly better than the previous release, but have done little to quell scepticism about the reliability of Chinese statistics, as well as the health of the country’s economy.

The unemployment rate for urban youth in December 2023 stood at 14.9 per cent.

On paper at least, it was an improvement from a record 21.3 per cent in June 2023, the last month for which the National Bureau of Statistics NBS) issued data before the suspension to improve its labour surveys and statistics methodologies.

The new methodology now excludes students, because "the main task of school students is to study, not to work part-time", NBS director Kang Yi said on Jan 17.

Not only does this method deviate from international standards, but economists are also complaining that the Chinese statistics authority is not providing adjusted historical data, making it impossible to compare current and past joblessness.

Before the data suspension, China's youth unemployment rate came into sharp focus in 2023 following month after month of record-breaking numbers, with a consistent upward trend seen since 2021.