Israel and Iran have just delivered the US election's 'October surprise'

With American policy in the Middle East in tatters, Donald Trump could be the principal beneficiary of escalation in the region.

- Gideon Rachman

For the past year, the Biden administration has struggled to prevent a regional war in the Middle East, fearing that it might draw in the US or wreak havoc on the world economy.

This policy is now very close to failing. For the second time in 2024, Iran has fired missiles at Israel, and the US has helped Israel to shoot down the missiles. Mr Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Adviser, has promised that there will be “severe consequences” for Iran and said the US will “work with Israel” to ensure that this is the case. That sounds ominously like a threat of joint US-Israeli military action against Iran.

In April, Israel was persuaded to limit its retaliation to a level that the Iranians could tacitly accept - and the tit-for-tat exchange stopped. This time round, it seems much less likely that the exchange of blows between Iran and Israel can be prevented from escalating further.

Israel has just launched a second front in its war with its regional enemies, with a ground incursion into Lebanon that follows up on the devastating blows it has already landed on Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant force. The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clearly feels that it has its enemies on the run. It may want to hit back hard at Iran, hoping to do lasting damage to the Islamic republic and perhaps to its feared nuclear programme.