Israeli air strikes could be far more damaging than Iran cares to admit

Iran's leaders face dilemma over how to frame fallout from Israel's Oct 26 attacks

- Jonathan Eyal

LONDON – In his first public reaction to Israel's Oct 26 air strikes, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged people in his country not to exaggerate but also not to minimize the significance of the Israeli attacks.

Speaking on Oct 27 to the families of Iranian soldiers killed in the air strikes, Ayatollah Khamenei claimed that Israel was "exaggerating" the damage it inflicted on Iran, but added that it was also a "mistake" for Iranians to conclude that the Israeli offensive "was nothing important".

Mr Khamenei's statement perfectly illustrates the dilemma currently facing Iran's leaders.

For internal political reasons, they have to claim that Israel's attack was a failure. But to uphold their country's claim as a regional power, Iran's leaders also have to argue that Israel must be punished for its deeds.

Meanwhile, Israeli military sources claim that their strikes have inflicted substantial damage on the Iranian military and that Iran is not in a position to retaliate for quite some time.

Separating truth from pure propaganda in such competing narratives is never easy. Still, there are clear signs that Israel has displayed yet again its military superiority and that its air strikes should give the Iranians a great deal to worry about.

The Israelis are always keen to portray their military in the best light. And it's always prudent to take Israeli military claims with a pinch of salt.

Still, when it comes to the military showdown with Iran, Israel not only has a long history of avoiding any exaggerated claims of victory, it also often prefers to say nothing at all, if only due to the insistence of the US that Israel should do everything possible to avoid a broader Middle East war.