News analysis Trump 2.0 could bring not just tariffs, but also some trade deals for Asean

The tariffs may sting, but South-east Asia can still strike some sweet deals with the growth-focused Trump administration.

- Bhagyashree Garekar

Even amid a generally gloomy outlook under protectionist President-elect Donald Trump, who is due to begin his second White House term on Jan 20, prospects look good for more trade in energy, infrastructure and defence equipment.

With some luck, there might even be a digital free trade agreement (FTA) with Asean.

To decode what lies ahead in the next four years, The Straits Times spoke to seasoned experts in trade, business and diplomacy in the US as well as in the region.

Of topmost concern is Trump's idea of universal tariffs of up to 20 per cent on all trade partners and at least 60 per cent on Chinese goods. These actions can set off tit-for-tat spirals and hit global trade volumes - a worrisome prospect for a trade-dependent region.

Still, the mix of Trump's unpredictable decision-making, his penchant for transactional diplomacy, and specific plans such as achieving "energy dominance" and expanding oil drilling and the export of natural gas suggests that there could be gains for the region.

"Singapore's status as a regional energy trading hub could align with Trump's energy export drive," said Mr Daniel Russel, vice-president for International Security and Diplomacy at Washington-based think-tank Asia Society Policy Institute.

It could also benefit nations such as Vietnam and the Philippines, which are seeking to diversify their energy sources and modernise infrastructure, he added.

Mr Ted Osius, president of the US-Asean Business Council, which represents 180 of the largest American businesses in South-east Asia, said that while there is no room for a proactive trade agenda under Trump, there could be a strategic sectoral approach.

"Our companies care a lot about the energy transition and the digital economy," he said.