US economy no longer overheated, Fed chief tells Senate committee

The United States is “no longer an overheated economy” with a job market that has “cooled considerably” from its pandemic-era extremes and in many ways is back where it was before the health crisis, Fed chairman Jerome Powell said in remarks to Congress that suggested the case for interest rate cuts is becoming stronger.

“We are well aware that we now face two-sided risks”, and can no longer focus solely on inflation, Mr Powell told the Senate Banking Committee on July 9. “The labour market appears to be fully back in balance.”

Mr Powell told lawmakers bluntly that “today I’m not going to be sending any signals about the timing of any future actions” on interest rates, as he was quizzed by Democrats about the risks to the job market and by Republicans about the pain to households of inflation that remains above the central bank’s 2 per cent target.

But analysts still saw Mr Powell at least edging the door open to a rate cut as soon as September.

“His emphasis has shifted a bit towards a balance of risks within the Fed’s mandate,” said Natixis chief economist for the US Christopher Hodge. “The Fed needs to get ahead of weakness in the labour market... it appears as if the foundation is being laid for a pivot in September.”

Mr Powell’s semi-annual appearance in the Senate will be followed by a hearing in the House set for July 10 at 10pm Singapore time.