If you want to make a climate scientist uncomfortable, just sidle up to them and whisper "tipping points" in their ear. Climate breakdown driven by global heating is scary enough, but so-called climate tipping points send a shiver down the spine. So, what are they and why do they have us all running scared? We're in the middle of a unique experiment that's driving up the global average temperature at least 10 times faster than at any time in the geological record.
The consequences are all around us: explosions of extreme weather, collapsing ice sheets and accelerating sea-level rise.
But as greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb as fast as ever and the global temperature rise (compared to pre-industrial times) for the last 12 months touches 1.64°C (a rise of almost 3°F), so the likelihood of sudden, permanent switches in dangerous elements of the climate system is becoming increasingly possible.
Because a critical threshold needs to be reached before a switch can occur, and because like a tilting seesaw - once a switch starts, there's no going back, they're called tipping points.
There are plenty of definitions out there, but the one that really hits the nail on the head comes from The American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language, which describes a tipping point as: "A critical moment in a complex situation in which a small influence or development produces a sudden large or irreversible change." Where the climate is concerned, for large, read disastrous.
How things could tip
Scientists who work to model where global heating is taking our climate struggle with tipping points for two reasons. Firstly, they're not easy to pin down in terms of timing and impact.
Secondly, how tipping points are treated within climate models can dramatically influence the output, thereby increasing uncertainty in terms of forecasting how climate breakdown will unfold in years to come.
Esta historia es de la edición October 2024 de BBC Science Focus.
Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 9,000 revistas y periódicos.
Ya eres suscriptor ? Conectar
Esta historia es de la edición October 2024 de BBC Science Focus.
Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 9,000 revistas y periódicos.
Ya eres suscriptor? Conectar
WHEN'S THE BEST TIME FOR A CAFFEINE HIT?
Wakey-wakey! Find the sweet spot for a coffee shot and science says the benefits are grande
DEAD MAN’S FINGERS
Picture the scene. It's Halloween and you've gone for an ill-advised stroll through the graveyard on the edge of town.
What tipping point are climate scientists most worried about?
Collapsing ice sheets, loss of the Amazon rainforest, melting permafrost.……. Key parts of Earth's climate system are in trouble. Which could trigger disaster first?
PROFESSOR BRIAN COX
The biggest space missions yet are making their way to new parts of the Universe. In his new BBC Two series Solar System, Prof Brian Cox reveals what these explorations are discovering about life in our galactic neighbourhood. Noa Leach sat down with him to talk about the most exciting new missions, life in the Universe and his top behind-the-scenes moments of filming
KEEP YOUR HAIR ON
MORE THAN HALF OF MEN AND MILLIONS OF WOMEN ARE AFFECTED BY HAIR LOSS. IT CAUSES LOW SELF-ESTEEM IN SOME AND ANXIETY IN OTHERS. THANKFULLY, SCIENTISTS AROUND THE WORLD ARE GETTING TO THE ROOTS OF THE PROBLEM WITH PIONEERING NEW TREATMENTS
DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
Could we deflect an asteroid to stop it from hitting Earth? The success of NASA's DART mission suggests so, but only after ESA's soon-to-launch Hera mission has checked the results will we know if this approach to planetary defence is a viable possibility
SAVE THE SHARKS...SAVE THE OCEANS
RUTHLESS PREDATORS, MINDLESS KILLERS, MAN-EATERS... SHARKS HAVE A FEARSOME REPUTATION THAT BEARS LITTLE RELATION TO REALITY. THE TRUTH IS, THESE REMARKABLE CREATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE. BUT OUR WATERS WON'T BE ANY SAFER WITHOUT THEM. IN FACT, THE PLANET'S SEAS WILL BE IN EVEN GREATER JEOPARDY THAN THEY ALREADY ARE
COULD ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BE THE CURE FOR LONELINESS?
Rates of loneliness are increasing worldwide. But big-tech companies think they have the solution...
Olive mill wastewater: a health-boosting tonic hiding in the leftovers
A by-product of the olive oil production process is packed with compounds that lower your cholesterol and reduce your risk of developing cancer.
Lab-grown meat may be better for livestock, but not necessarily for the environment
The move to put alternative protein on our plates is gathering pace but there are still questions to answer