1st of February marks the beginning of the Chinese Year of the Tiger, a character associated with bravery and courage, which perhaps, in today’s economic context, can symbolize our aspirations for strength and resilience for the coming year. The US announced its national debt surpassed $30 trillion bringing into sharp focus this overhang of the investments made by most governments in protecting their economies during the pandemic. The IMF also recently report- ed that global government debt now exceeds global annual GDP and cautioned governments, including Indonesia’s, on taking on new debt going forward as the need to raise interest rates to  fight the emerging inflation trend will also place a significant burden on public  finances to service the existing debt. Bank Indonesia Governor, Perry Warjiyo, highlighted the likely rise in inflation whilst presenting his 2021 annual reports and forecasted a year of recovery in 2022 with GDP growth of between 4.7% and 5.4% expected.

With the alarms of potential recessions in several western economies ringing ever louder, and up to 28 countries looking for  financial assistance from the IMF, the need for greater collaboration among the world’s major economies is as imperative as ever before. However, the ongoing war in Ukraine and US tensions with China continue to act as a barrier to cohesive action. The re- cent G20 Finance Ministers meeting breaking up without a joint communique being an example of the current political climate. With the G20 summit just a few weeks away, and with all leaders expected to attend, we can hope that some behind-the scenes meetings can help bring back an active dialog and concerted action on those issues which are challenging all countries. As Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati was quoted at the end of the G20 Finance Minister meeting, now is the time for “strong leadership and collective action”.

For most people around the world, Queen Elizabeth II had been a  constant presence as the monarch of the United Kingdom and the other countries over which she was the head of state, at her passing and for others, prior to their independence. For over 70 years she led her realms and the British Commonwealth with a strong sense of duty and passion, an ever-present as the world evolved, celebrating great moments of success and seeking to share her strength and resilience in times of struggle and conflict. She was also Britain’s greatest ambassador during her reign, visiting 117 countries around the world including Indonesia in 1974, she also welcomed President Yudhoyono on his state visit to the United Kingdom in 2012. The outpouring of respect and grief from so many quarters is a testament to the high regard with which she was held and the arrangements around her funeral give us all an opportunity to pay our respects whilst witnessing the pomp and pageantry which surrounds the passing of the throne. There are few, if any, other leaders who have spent 70 years “in the top position” and I believe there are many lessons in her leadership which will be worth understanding better over time. Our heartfelt commiserations to all her family and we look forward with great expectations for the rule of King Charles III. 

With inflation in the United States and United Kingdom touching 9% and a significant slow-down not expected soon, the Bank of England even  forecasting that UK inflation could rise as high as 13% in October this year, further interest rates increases continue to be signalled. Indonesia is not immune with annual inflation hitting 4.94% in July 2022, a seven and a half year high. Food price inflation was reported at 10.47% year on-year and the effects of inflationary pressures saw the Ministry of Transportation approve fare increases for both airlines and online motorcycle hailing services. The Agriculture Ministry also warned of the risk of significant inflation on that ever popular Indonesian stable, noodles, as a result of the global wheat supply disruptions. A recent Bloomberg survey indicates a consensus that inflation will remain high for the rest of the year, with an average forecast of 5%, plus 1% from its last survey, the full year inflation rate averaging 4% up from 3.5% previously.

At the time of writing, I am just back from visiting Surabaya where we had the opportunity to catch-up with around 30 local entrepreneurs and founders of both established and newer businesses. The sense of optimism and opportunity certainly far outweighed the near-term concerns on inflation and supply chain challenges, mirroring the positive outlook which was also prevalent during recent events in Jakarta. This is also more broadly reflected in the  latest consumer confidence index (IKK) which remained at an optimistic level in June and was relatively stable at 128.2 compared to May’s 128.9 (>100 reflecting a positive outlook). Bank Indonesia’s June 2022 Retail Sales Survey recorded a 15.4% year-on-year rise to 229.1 as retailers also predict stronger demand from consumers despite concerns on inflation.

At the time of writing, stocks and crypto assets were experiencing another sell off in response to the latest headline inflation numbers in the United States and other major markets. With US inflation reaching 8.6%, all eyes are turning to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with an increase in interest rates of a further 50 basis points now largely expected. If confirmed, it will be first time in almost 30 years there has been such a sharp tightening of monetary policy through back-to-back 50 basis point adjustments. To date, the impact on the overall US economy, at least from headline statistics, is not pointing towards a recession although several companies are beginning to prepare themselves just in case. Will we experience an economic chill, or, to use the observations of one of our columnists this month, is winter coming? As the cliché goes, time will tell, but certainly caution is the watch word for the next few months at least and we expect investors to become more selective for the coming months.

Those who have worked in tight roof spaces know the dangers of stepping off the joists and onto the rafters. It’s an analogy of the situation which now faces the Federal Reserve and Central Banks as they need to tread carefully to balance the inflationary pressures resulting from a long period of low interest rates fuelling borrowings and debt, two years of accommodative monetary policy to fight the pandemic and now the global disruption on key commodities caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine, all whilst supply chains and economic activity were earlier on track for a positive recovery as we entered 2022. With spiralling inflation now seen as a significant near-term risk, the Fed has just announced the largest single interest rate hike in 20 years and signalled the intention to raise rates a further seven times before the end of the year. With commodity prices across energy, metals and food all running at or near 12-month highs the possibility of a recession, or at least stunted growth, when expectations were much more positive just 4 months ago, is real. With the US Government Debt level breaching $30 trillion and the war in Ukraine giving rise to more spending requests, the question of when the current debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion may be reached starts to come into view. With the coming US mid-term elections having so much riding on them for both main parties, it’s hard to see easy compromises being reached, with a potential further jolt to confidence in the markets.

As the conflict in Ukraine continues, its humanitarian and economic impacts are more sharply coming into focus. Sanctions continue to be ramped up and there is public discourse as to whether Russia should be invited to the G20 summit due to be held in Bali this November, and if they are, whether other nations may choose to boycott the summit, or some parts of it. It’s a playbook seen before in 2014 when the G8 expelled Russia over the invasion of Crimea leaving a G7 seeking to align policies, including now, their response to the current crisis. Given the status quo of Russia’s continuing occupation of Crimea, the effectiveness of excluding Russia from the G20 is debatable. For the time being, President Joko Widodo’s intentions seem to be to invite Russia, and trust that an opportunity for reproachment can also lead to some positive steps in resolving the crisis. It’s an approach consistent with Indonesia’s usual foreign policy stance and one can hope that a meaningful resolution of the situation can be found in the meantime.

Just as President Joko Widodo’s program for his presidency of the G20 was taking shape around the theme of ‘Recover Together, Recover Stronger’, the potential of a collective approach to its three priority issues of Global Health Architecture, Digital Transformation and Energy Transition will now face significant headwinds as the G20 members address how to manage the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Whilst most western members have aligned on significant and increasing sanctions against its fellow G20 member, some member countries are for now, maintaining a more passive stance. It remains to be seen how this schism will play out in the coming months and whether there will be much opportunity to advance the noble priorities which have been put forth for 2022.

As the calendar turns to 1st January each year, it’s usually a time when we reflect on our hopes and aspirations for the new year and make our resolutions on how we are going to do better. Whilst the pandemic is still  firmly driving government policies around travel and social distancing restrictions, economically there are many positive developments which can give us optimism for a positive year in 2022. The Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX)  finished 2021 strongly after a year which saw a record number of IPO’s and investors and 2022 has started on a bullish footing. Last year saw four Indonesian startups reach unicorn status, bringing the total number of recognized unicorns locally to nine, and there is every expectation that continued growth in the ecommerce and fintech sectors particularly, will see several more startups reach unicorn status in 2022.

Counting down to the end of 2021, and thinking what the year ahead may hold, my thoughts initially were of cautious optimism, which was, co- incidentally, the heading of the sidelines for December 2020. Reflecting further, there is certainly much more to be optimistic about one year on, even if a new normal still seems some months o  as countries determine how to handle the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant.
As of writing, Indonesia has administered a  first dose of vaccines to over 140 million people,  just over 50% of the population, whilst approaching 100 million are fully vaccinated. This certainly has played a strong part in the government being able to re-open the economy following the spike in cases mid-year. It also meant that the stricter local mobility restrictions planned for the year-end could be partially relaxed. Conversely, international movements are again being subjected to increased quarantine requirements, damping optimism in the travel and tourism sector, already so badly impacted by the restrictions imposed in most countries, and which had been looking to begin recovering as several countries in the region had announced plans to start opening up borders again.

Nearly 250 years ago, James Watt’s innovations on an earlier steam engine model launched the  first industrial revolution. The resulting advances in economic growth and human prosperity have been powered by the consumption of fossil fuels and led to the wide-scale conversion of land use for industrial purposes, which together have contributed significantly to the climate change crisis we face today. Its perhaps  fitting that, in this time of peril for the planet, world leaders meet for COP26 this month in Glasgow, the city where James Watt launched his new designs in 1776.

Whilst infection rates have continued to fall sharply, bene tting from the continued imposition of social distancing controls and increased vac- cination rates, the relaxation in certain sectors has resulted in a positive im- pact. Based on the IHS Markit Indonesian Manufacturing PMI report, manu- facturing activity returned to positive territory in September with the index at 52.2% versus 43.7% in August. However, it also noted the pressure on prices and supply chains caused by the continuing disruption in many markets from the pandemic and lock-downs.

Indonesia celebrated the 76th anniversary of its independence on August 17, although the continuing social restrictions made the celebrations more muted than usual. The above theme for Presiden Joko "Jokowi" Widodo address, Resilient Indonesia, Growing Indonesia, encapsulated the spirit which is needed to maintain positive momentum during the pandemic and to capitalize on the bright future which the country undoubtedly has. Looking economically, Indonesia’s public sector debt-GDP ratio has climbed 10% since the outset of the crisis due to the measures undertaken to combat the effects of COVID-19 spread, but at 40.5% it remains in the lower 20% in the ranking of government indebtedness among G20 countries.

With the current suspension of the US government debt ceiling coming to an end on 31st July 2021, the 5th such suspension along with over 40 increases since 1982, the title of Blancmange’s UK Hit from that year would seem to be an apt description of where US federal debt has been over the last 40 years.

Reminiscent of the popular children’s game, the progress of most countries around the world in their efforts to achieve a smooth exit from social distancing measures and to re-open their borders seems to remain a matter of four steps forward, three steps back. Locally, the vaccination roll-out gains traction but a surge in COVID-19 cases has placed extreme pressure on the capacity of hospitals to manage an increase in serious cases, resulting in the implementation of new lockdown measures for the first weeks of July. This has dealt a blow to efforts to try and boost the recovery among the travel and hospitality sector as domestic travel is curtailed and plans for an opening of international travel to Bali and other destinations are put on hold. Those countries with high vaccination rates are now debating pathways for increased international travel, including the differentiation of quarantine restrictions for vaccinated and non-vaccinated travelers, and the sector will be watching closely as it seeks to recover from the impacts of a 77.6% decline in international arrivals year to date May 2021, which follows a 75% decline across 2020 as a whole.

Whilst Indonesia’s tech unicorns have been at the forefront of the business news, most recently due to the $18 billion merger of Tokopedia and Gojek, several of its banks have also been featured in the Forbes’ global lists published during May. Bank Rakyat Indonesia ranked 362nd in the 2021 Forbes Global 2000 list of the World’s Largest Public Companies, heading a trio of fellow banks and 2 other companies as six Indonesian entities were featured. Also published this month was Forbes’ 2021 list of the World’s Best Banks, compiled from over 43,000 customer interviews across 28 countries. 

A centuries old aphorism, popularized by William Shakespeare in his play The Merchant of Venice, could be an apt description of current investment market trends with surging digital assets and digitally enhanced companies driving the markets. After growing 3.3x in 2020 to $668 billion, the market capitalization value of all cryptocurrencies and tokens has soared dramatically in 2021, standing presently at over $2 trillion according to the cryptocurrency tracking site coinmarketcap.com. 

The accelerated embracing of technology solutions and platforms by companies and consumers alike has been the over-riding theme of business changes during the pandemic. Also regularly in the head-lines is the potential of reversing some of the negative climate change impacts which economic developments globally over recent decades had deepened. Whilst there is a long way to go, the period of limited activity during 2020 showed the potential for rapid improvements in air and water quality that a lowering of pollution could bring. Several cities are now adopting new regulations to embrace eco-friendly activities to capitalize on the improvements made already whilst the convergence of technology and environmental solutions is being seen through the number of telecommunication related technology companies seeking to partner in the investment into electric powered vehicles and power cells. With Indonesia already on the path to the development of electric vehicle battery technologies there is much opportunity for this to become an important economic success story locally.

The second phase of the Indonesian government’s vaccination drive has now been launched with the elderly and those in the public-facing workforce being prioritized. This includes hospitality and tourism related workers, a positive step to help the recovery in a sector which represented around 8% of GDP before the pandemic, but one which is still most dependent on the future relaxation of social distancing and travel restrictions. With between 12 and 15 months anticipated as required to complete the initial target of vaccinating around 182 million people, approximately 70% of the population, the need to couple this health drive with continued fiscal stimuli to ensure a smooth economic recovery is the challenge facing the government in 2021. It’s a situation not unique to Indonesia with several countries announcing in recent weeks, significant investments in measures similar to those announced here, where almost Rp700 trillion has been ear-marked in the current state budget to support Indonesia’s national economic recovery program. With Indonesia’s balance of trade remaining positive on the back of stronger exports, the rupiah stable, inflation low and consumer confidence showing signs of improving, Bank Indonesia last month also lowered by a further 25 basis points, its 7-day reverse repo rate to also help stimulate demand further.

 INDONESIA HAS EXPERIENCED an upsurge in digital content consumption in the past few years. Fueled by rising internet adoption, huge consumer population, smartphone ownership, and heavy use of social media platform, the trend will maintain heading north going forward. The trend has also begun shifting of ads spending from conventional media of print, radio, and television to digital platforms. Data from market research company Nielsen showed that advertising spending in those conventional media are declining, growing only by 2% from the third quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2019, compared to 6% grown in the same period of 2017 to 2018. On the other hand, despite lacking clear data about the actual ads spending in digital platforms in Indonesia, people believe the numbers are going up inline with the viewers.

Our warm best wishes for a healthy and prosperous 2021 to all our readers. Perhaps more so than recent years, this new year brings an increased expectation of renewal, both of personal ambition and expectation for a better year ahead and for companies, which while needing to continue to adapt the new business conditions brought about by the pandemic, most of whom will start the year with a fresh financial slate after closing out a 2020 significantly impacted by public health measures across the globe. 2020 saw many companies which had already embraced technology, not just those labeled as tech-companies, survive and thrive in a stressed business environment whilst many others accelerated their conversion of off-line processes to on-line ones. 

As the calendar rolls into its last month each year, it’s usually a time to reflect on the 12 months past and look forward on an optimistic note to the opportunities ahead. The clarity of thought and action, or in some cases, a lack of it, by the world’s governments to control the virus has resulted in developed countries finishing the year on quite different recovery curves. Whilst the recent positive news on vaccines will give optimism to all of them, the need to roll out vaccination programs will still leave at least the first half of 2021 with a significant overhang before global trade and travel can truly begin to recover.

With Indonesia recording a decline in GDP during Q3 2020 of 3.49%, the country has for the first time in over 2 decades, entered a technical recession. It’s a position shared with many other countries and reflecting the continuing slowdown in business activity and trade which the responses to the pandemic have induced. After stabilizing in July and August, Bank Indonesia’s latest consumer confidence index recorded a decline of 3.5 points to 83.4 with a negative sentiment being seen in 13 out of 18 cities surveyed following the latest round of PSSB social distancing restrictions implemented in Jakarta. On the positive side, the decline in retail sales has shallowed, inflation registered a small uptick but remains low at 1.44% in October and the PMI rose to 44.91% in Q3, up from 28.55% in Q2, still in negative territory but reflecting a significantly improved outlook in the manufacturing sector.

When the economic slow-down initiated by the COVID-19 induced shut-down was in its early stages, most optimistic scenarios hoped for a V-shaped recovery whilst a U- or W-shaped one were already becoming apparent in some markets and business sectors just a few months into the crisis. Whilst those countries which acted early and strongly, for example China and Vietnam, are today showing signs of a V-shaped recovery driven largely by domestic consumption, it is not the case everywhere and the lexicon of letters economists use to describe the global recovery is now more frequently using that usually silent letter in the English language, K. This reflects the disparity now apparent in recovery scenarios being faced between countries, industries and social classes with very differing time-frames and depth of impact being faced across different markets. Policy packages are going to need to become more specific in their application if we are going to help those sectors and workers in areas more deeply affected, catch-up again with those returning to stability and growth more quickly.

The economic impact of reduced demand is seen in the recently released statistics with inflation falling 0.1% month–month to an annual rate of 1.54% in July 2020, the producer price index falling 1.44% in the second quarter and second quarter GDP being reported at -5.32% on an annual basis. With the de- cline in exports holding up better than the reduction in imports, -9.9% versus -32.55%, Indonesia reported a healthy trade surplus in July 2020. The government continues to focus on strategic areas to reduce Indonesia’s reliance on imports and in addition to agricultural initiatives already in the pipeline pre-covid, the dependency on imported raw materials for drug manufacturing has been added as a critical risk area to be addressed as a result of the disruptions to the supply chains caused by the crisis.

Several countries have spent the past six months tackling the COVID-19 crisis seemingly with a hope that if one can hold one’s breath long enough, it will pass and life can go back to normal. The recent resurgence of the virus in countries that seemed to have gotten over the worse of it, coupled with the beginnings of a greater understanding of the severity of the medical conditions it can cause, indicates we are in for the long haul. Even if a vaccine can be developed quickly, it is still to be proven how effective it will be, how long a dose will last, and how fast it can reach sufficient people to create “herd immunity” on a global scale. All of these will have a great role in restoring the confidence needed to kick-start local consumer- driven and global trade-driven recoveries.

This month, we continue our articles on businesses adapting to the new economic dynamics whilst our cover features Hermanto Tanoko, a suc- cessful second-generation entrepreneur from Surabaya. After working in and helping develop his father’s Avian branded paint business, Hermanto branched out together with his wife into property and then bottled water. Their diversified business interests today also cover manufacturing, F&B, consumer goods, retail, and hospitality businesses, all managed under the holding company, PT Tancorp Abadi Nusantara.

With th most countries now moving, or shortly moving, from contain- ment policies to measured re-openings, the cost of the COVID-19
pandemic is still mounting socially and economically. Although 
China began its re-opening phase in April, marking the early part of that month as the peak of global economic inactivity, much of the rest of the world is only now in the early stages of re-opening, so the true depth of the pandemic’s impact is yet to emerge. As more data becomes available, ana- lysts from across the spectrum of governments, policy makers and scientists will all be able to step through the looking-glass to reflect more deeply on what needs to be done to mitigate the impacts of the current crisis, in both human and economic terms, and on what should be done to be better pre- pared for a future pandemic.

These challenging times make it important we share ideas and collaborate to find previously unforeseen opportunities. At Forbes Indonesia, COVID-19 has encouraged us to explore new channels to facilitate such collaboration, including preparing several webinar series' and opening up our digital channels for columnists and professionals to share their thoughts. Like the Asian Monetary Crisis which led to improvements in the Banking and Financial sector, we believe there is much to learn together and improve on after the pandemic ends.

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Forbes Indonesia - February 2022

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