Today's Focus: Senate Approves Historic N54.9 Trillion Budget

The Nigerian Senate has approved the 2025 Appropriation Bill, setting a record with a N54.9 trillion budget—an increase of N7 trillion from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s initial proposal of N47.9 trillion. This landmark decision, reached during Thursday’s plenary session presided over by Senate President Godswill Akpabio, marks a significant shift in the country’s fiscal strategy.

The budget expansion reflects lawmakers’ adjustments to address key national priorities, with significant allocations to security, infrastructure, and social welfare. Additional funding has been earmarked for the military, police, and intelligence agencies in response to escalating security challenges. Infrastructure spending, particularly in roads, railways, and energy projects, has been scaled up to drive economic growth.

This approval signals the government’s commitment to tackling Nigeria’s pressing challenges. However, questions remain about funding sources and the potential impact on inflation and debt sustainability.

Telecom Operators Enforce 50% Tariff Hike Despite House Directive

Nigerians are waking up to higher telecom costs as operators implement a 50% tariff hike approved by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), despite a directive from the House of Representatives to suspend the increase.

MTN’s revised data prices show a sharp rise, with the 1.8GB monthly plan now at ₦1,500 from ₦1,000, while the 20GB plan jumps to ₦7,500 from ₦5,500. SMS charges have also increased from ₦4.00 to ₦6.00.

The NCC defends the hike, citing rising operational costs, but consumer advocacy groups, including NATCOMS, have condemned it as an added burden on Nigerians.

On Tuesday, lawmakers ordered the NCC and Minister of Communications, Dr. Bosun Tijani, to halt the increase, arguing that poor service quality and inflation make it unjustifiable. Concerns are growing that higher costs will worsen financial hardship and limit digital access for millions.



Motorists Resist Third-Party Insurance Enforcement as Economic Hardship Bites

One week into the Federal Government’s enforcement of third-party vehicle insurance, Nigerian motorists are pushing back, citing economic hardship, distrust in the system, and confusion over policy requirements.

In Lagos, Akwa Ibom, and Edo, police and road safety officials have intensified crackdowns, threatening defaulters with fines of up to ₦250,000. However, compliance remains low, especially in the Southeast, where authorities continue urging motorists to renew their policies.

A major sticking point is the sharp rise in premium costs. In 2022, the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) increased third-party insurance fees from ₦5,000 to ₦15,000—a 200% hike many vehicle owners say is unaffordable given the country’s worsening economic conditions.

“Nigerians are already struggling with food prices, fuel costs, and rent. Now they’re being forced to pay three times more for insurance they don’t even trust,” lamented a Lagos-based commercial driver.

With resistance growing, the question remains: will stricter enforcement push compliance, or will authorities have to reconsider their approach?



BusinessNG Special Edition: Airtel Africa Poised for Major Gains from NCC’s 50% Tariff Hike

The Nigerian Communications Commission's (NCC) recent 50% tariff increase is set to reshape the telecom sector, with Airtel Africa emerging as a key winner. Given Nigeria’s strong revenue contribution, the hike is expected to accelerate Airtel’s growth, boosting both revenue and profitability.

Airtel Africa’s revenue in Nigeria already surged 38.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025. With the tariff adjustment, analysts project a further 25–30% increase, translating to an additional $200–$300 million annually. Mobile services and mobile money are expected to drive this surge, solidifying Nigeria’s position as Airtel’s most lucrative market.





The Senate Committee on Public Accounts has strongly criticized key revenue-generating agencies for ignoring queries from the Office of the Auditor General of the Federation (OAGF). Chairman Senator Aliyu Ahmed Wadada, in a press briefing on Tuesday, expressed frustration over the failure of agencies like the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigerian Customs Service (NCS), Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), and Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to appear before the Senate.

The OAGF report submitted to the Senate uncovered massive financial irregularities. Wadada condemned the agencies' refusal to cooperate, stressing the urgent need for accountability. He also called for a thorough investigation into the CBN’s handling of "Ways and Means" transactions.



Today's Focus: Nigeria’s 2025 Economic Outlook – Growth, Inflation, and Policy Reforms

Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 3.3% in 2025, according to a new PwC report. This growth is driven by ongoing policy reforms but tempered by inflationary pressures. Inflation, which has eroded purchasing power, is expected to decline to 26% due to tighter monetary policies and foreign exchange improvements. While economic challenges persist, a more stable exchange rate is anticipated. Today’s edition explores the implications of these projections, the risks ahead, and how businesses and households can navigate Nigeria’s evolving economic landscape.



Today's Focus: Nigeria Faces Investment Decline Risk in 2025 – PwC

Nigeria is at risk of losing significant foreign investments in 2025 due to negative real interest rates, warns PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in its “2025 Nigerian Budget and Economic Outlook” report. Despite aggressive rate hikes by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in 2024, inflation has outpaced interest rates, undermining investment returns. PwC highlighted this as a major deterrent for local and foreign investors, with global investors likely reallocating funds to markets offering better real returns. The consultancy urged bold reforms to stabilize inflation and improve the investment climate, emphasizing that failure to act could exacerbate economic challenges and reduce investor confidence.



Focus on Today's Edition: Union Bank's New PoS Withdrawal Policy

Union Bank has rolled out a new daily withdrawal limit of N100,000 for Point-of-Sale (PoS) transactions, aligning with the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) directive issued on December 17, 2024. The move aims to curb fraud, enhance operational consistency, and improve security within the Nigerian banking sector.

Alongside the daily limit, Union Bank has set a weekly cap of N500,000 for PoS withdrawals, effective immediately. The bank communicated these changes to its customers through email, urging them to utilize alternative channels such as UnionMobile, the *826# service, and UnionOnline. These services are designed to provide convenient access to banking without the need for physical cash withdrawals.

This policy shift comes in response to the ongoing challenges faced by Nigerian banks, including limited cash availability, especially during high-demand periods such as the festive season.



Today's editorial focuses on U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed overhaul of the trade system, announced during his inauguration. Trump plans to establish an external revenue service to impose tariffs on foreign goods, aiming to protect American workers and enrich U.S. citizens.

While this policy may bolster U.S. domestic interests, global implications could be dire. Nigeria’s Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy warns of potential disruptions to international trade and strained economic ties.

As Nigeria relies heavily on U.S.-bound exports, this development poses a significant threat to economic stability. Our editors urge strategic dialogue to counter these emerging trade challenges.

Nigeria's inflation rate surged to 34.80% in December 2024, a sharp increase from 28.92% recorded in the same month of 2023. The rise, attributed to soaring food prices (up 18.02%), housing and energy costs (up 5.82%), and clothing and footwear expenses, has intensified pressures on household budgets. Food inflation alone soared to a staggering 39.84%, spotlighting the dire economic strain on citizens.

In the midst of these challenges, the ongoing rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could mark a turning point. Analysts suggest that the updated basket of goods and services used to measure inflation will provide a clearer reflection of the economy’s realities. This recalibration may ease perceived inflationary pressures and potentially influence the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) monetary policies.

As the nation awaits the CBN's next policy meeting in February, speculation grows that a more stable inflation outlook from the rebasing could prompt the bank to reconsider its tightening cycle. However, the high inflation rate remains a critical challenge for policymakers striving to balance growth and economic stability.

Today’s edition delves into these unfolding developments, examining their implications for Nigeria's economy and the average citizen.

Today’s edition delves into the heightened activity in Nigeria’s T-bills market, driven by investors seeking refuge amidst soaring inflation. December 2024 data revealed the country’s headline inflation rate reaching 34.8%, igniting a surge in demand within the T-bills secondary market.

Despite inflationary pressures, trading concluded on a bullish note, with yields rising across mid, belly, and long ends of the curve. This demand-driven activity resulted in a 12-basis-point drop in the average yield, settling at 25.2%. Key contributions to the yield contraction came from the 72-day (-139bps), 177-day (-2bps), and 331-day (-48bps) maturity bills.

Notably, the 8 January 2026 bill emerged as the top pick, seeing a remarkable 27-basis-point decline in yield. Additionally, widespread investor interest was observed in bills maturing in March, April, May, September, November, and December 2025, reflecting robust demand across the yield curve.

While the mid-to-long ends thrived, the shorter end of the curve witnessed limited activity, highlighting a strategic preference for longer-dated instruments amidst inflationary headwinds.

Editorial Focus: NBS Set to Rebase Nigeria’s GDP to Reflect Emerging Economic Realities

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced plans to rebase Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025, updating the base year from 2010 to 2019. This move aims to provide a more accurate and contemporary representation of the country’s economic landscape, especially in the aftermath of significant disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The choice of 2019 as the new reference year is informed by its relative stability before the pandemic-induced global economic upheavals. By incorporating data from newer and more dynamic sectors such as digital services, financial technology (fintech), modular refineries, and other emerging industries, the rebasing is expected to reveal a substantial increase in the GDP figures.

While the expected rise in GDP values may present a more vibrant economic outlook, experts caution against equating this with real economic growth or improved living standards. Nigeria continues to grapple with persistent fiscal challenges, including high debt servicing costs, dwindling revenues, inflation, and unemployment. These structural issues underline the importance of ensuring that economic growth, as reflected in the GDP, translates to tangible benefits for citizens.

As Nigeria moves closer to this rebasing exercise, policymakers must focus on leveraging the data to inform strategic planning. The insights from this exercise should serve as a tool for addressing structural weaknesses, boosting productivity, and fostering inclusive growth across sectors.

The editorial underscores the importance of framing GDP rebasing as more than a statistical exercise. It is an opportunity for Nigeria to reassess its economic priorities, build resilience, and create a pathway to sustainable development.

BusinessNG's edition today highlights the growing caution among foreign portfolio investors as profit-taking grips Nigeria’s sovereign Eurobonds ahead of December 2024 inflation data. The report underscores how inflation concerns and potential global monetary policy shifts are driving a bearish trend in sovereign bonds across Sub-Saharan and North Africa. Analysts from AIICO Capital link the sell-off to inflation fears and uncertainty around fiscal policies under the incoming Trump administration. TrustBanc Financial reveals that Nigeria's Eurobonds saw significant selling pressure, with average benchmark yields rising by 21 basis points to 9.39%. Key maturities, including November 2027 and March 2029, recorded the highest yield increases. The edition also explores the broader implications of these developments on investor sentiment and regional macroeconomic stability.

Nigeria’s capital market faces a potential N1.3 trillion hit as major companies, including Lafarge Africa, MRS Oil, Wapic Insurance, and International Energy Insurance, prepare to delist from the Nigerian Exchange (NGX). Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc recently led the trend, sparking concerns about investor confidence and market liquidity. Lafarge Africa’s parent company plans to sell its 83% stake to Hauxin Cement in a $1 billion deal, triggering a mandatory minority shareholder exit. MRS Oil, valued at N74.7 billion, and Wapic Insurance, with a N65 billion market cap, are also contributing to the growing wave of exits, signaling uncertainty for the NGX.

The price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could witness a significant reduction in 2025. Currently retailing between N900 and N950 per litre, industry experts predict it may drop to as low as N500 per litre by year-end.

Stakeholders attribute this potential decline to the federal government’s deregulation policy, which has fostered a more competitive and stable downstream sector. Key drivers of the anticipated price reduction include:

1. Stable Foreign Exchange Policy: Improved access to foreign exchange for importers.


2. Price Competition: Heightened rivalry among marketers to attract customers.


3. Naira-for-Crude Policy: Allowing local refiners to pay for crude oil in Naira instead of foreign currencies.
4. Expansion in Local Refining: New refineries becoming operational, reducing dependence on imports.

Shettima Optimistic About Nigeria’s Economic Recovery in 2025

Vice President Kashim Shettima has assured Nigerians that the country’s economy is on the path to recovery, expressing confidence in a strong economic performance in 2025. In a video shared by Dada Olusegun, Special Assistant to President Bola Tinubu on Social Media, Shettima highlighted the ongoing collaboration with the National Assembly to address critical economic challenges.

“I believe we have turned a corner. Insha Allah, we shall have very robust economic activity in the new year,” Shettima said, expressing optimism about Nigeria’s economic prospects. He emphasized that the economy has already begun to show signs of recovery and that Nigerians will begin to see improvements in the coming months.

While acknowledging the global economic headwinds, including the ongoing Ukraine crisis, the Vice President reassured the public that the government is taking decisive steps to steer the economy toward recovery, promising better times ahead for the nation.

President Bola Tinubu's unwavering stance on advancing controversial tax reform bills has triggered strong criticism from Northern leaders, lawmakers, and political groups, accusing him of bypassing proper consultation and due process.

The backlash underscores rising tensions between the presidency and regional stakeholders, who are concerned about the potential economic impact of the proposed reforms.

During his inaugural media chat in Lagos, Tinubu defended the bills, stressing the urgent need to overhaul Nigeria's outdated tax system. However, his assertion that the reforms are “non-negotiable” has provoked sharp reactions, particularly from Northern representatives, who view the approach as dismissive of legislative procedures.

Senator Mohammed Onawo, representing Nasarawa South, accused the President of undermining the legislative process. “As a former legislator, the President should understand that bills must undergo thorough legislative scrutiny. Declaring the reforms final without legislative input compromises the integrity of the National Assembly,” he said.

The controversy has sparked heated debates in political circles, with calls for broader dialogue to ensure that the reforms reflect the diverse interests of Nigeria's regions.

Nigerians have voiced growing frustration over the federal government's failure to deliver on critical promises made earlier this year. These commitments, aimed at mitigating the economic strain caused by policies like the removal of petrol subsidies and the unification of foreign exchange rates, have left citizens struggling with soaring living costs.

One of the most anticipated promises was the suspension of taxes and duties on essential food imports. Announced in July as a relief measure, the policy offered a 150-day duty-free window for staples such as rice, maize, and wheat. However, the failure to implement this measure has deepened public disappointment.

Cash circulating outside Nigeria’s banking system surged to an unprecedented N4.2 trillion in October 2024, a sharp rise from N792 billion in January 2023. This growth reflects the ineffectiveness of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) policies aimed at curbing excess liquidity. Currency in circulation also climbed to N4.5 trillion during the same period, underscoring the increasing reliance on cash outside formal financial channels.

Nigerians’ preference for cash transactions is partly fueled by persistent challenges in accessing money through Automated Teller Machines (ATMs). Many ATMs remain out of service or plagued by long queues, forcing individuals to depend on Point-of-Sale (POS) operators for withdrawals. However, this alternative often comes at a steep price, with fees ranging from 5% to 10% per transaction.

Despite the CBN’s hawkish monetary stance, including frequent increases in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), the demand for physical cash remains unabated. This trend raises questions about the effectiveness of current policies and the need for innovative approaches to address the liquidity crisis and restore confidence in Nigeria’s banking system.

As the festive season approaches, airfares for flights to Southeast Nigeria have hit unprecedented highs, with return tickets soaring to N700,000, leaving passengers in distress.
 Many travelers, particularly those headed to Anambra, Owerri, and Enugu, are struggling with the steep prices, leading some to reconsider air travel in favor of road transportation despite security concerns.
Moses Ogunlade, a businesswoman planning a trip for her family of five, revealed she would need nearly four million Naira to cover the costs of their air travel from Lagos to Owerri and their village. "Many of our friends, who initially wanted to fly, are now opting to go by road, despite the risks," she said.
BusinessNG investigation revealed that major airlines, including Air Peace, United Nigeria Airline, and Ibom Air, are charging exorbitant rates for flights to the Southeast

Today's edition highlights the worsening economic strain faced by Nigerians as the Christmas season approaches, with a deepening cash crisis severely impacting daily life, particularly in rural areas. Limited access to banking services, unreliable mobile networks, and cash scarcity are creating unprecedented challenges for individuals and businesses alike.

Healthcare systems are overwhelmed, with hospitals turning away patients and women resorting to home births due to a lack of payment options. Small businesses in food and retail sectors report dwindling sales as consumers struggle to secure basic necessities.

Exploitation by Point-of-Sale (PoS) operators, who impose exorbitant fees for cash withdrawals, coupled with banks rationing cash to N10,000 per transaction, is further aggravating public discontent. Promises of improved banking infrastructure have not alleviated the crisis, as mobile banking apps frequently malfunction, leaving many stranded without access to their funds

Governors Back State Police as NEC Prepares Final Decision

The creation of state police gained significant traction during the National Economic Council (NEC) meeting chaired by Vice President Kashim Shettima on Thursday. Thirty-six states presented their recommendations, with a majority endorsing the initiative.

Kaduna State Governor, Uba Sani, disclosed this development while addressing State House correspondents. He noted that the council would finalize its position on the matter at the next NEC meeting scheduled for January 2025.

“At today’s NEC meeting, we discussed updates on the creation of state police,” Sani said. “About 35 states have already submitted their recommendations, and the majority are in favor of the establishment of state police in Nigeria. However, the council decided to defer discussions to the next meeting to review a comprehensive report from the secretariat.”

The proposal for state police has been a recurring topic at NEC meetings, with debates intensifying over its potential to address Nigeria's growing security challenges. While states like Kwara, Kebbi, and Adamawa had delayed their submissions earlier in November, recent developments indicate broad consensus among governors.

Sani further explained that the council resolved to conduct additional stakeholder engagements to ensure inclusive decision-making. “The secretariat has agreed on further consultations after the panel deliberations, ensuring a robust framework for the state police initiative,” he added.

Interbank rates have surged in Nigeria’s money market, highlighting the mounting liquidity pressure within the financial system. The short-term benchmark interest rates have continued on an upward trend as banks strive to meet daily funding requirements amidst tightened liquidity.

The liquidity strain has driven local banks, especially tier-2 lenders, to rely more heavily on the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) borrowing window, where interest rates have risen above 32%. This reflects the ongoing challenge for institutions with weaker liquidity buffers.

On Tuesday, liquidity pressures intensified as substantial Open Market Operations (OMO) auction settlements drained the system, overshadowing the ₦101.8 billion inflow from maturing OMO bills. The settlement of ₦1.6 trillion in auctioned OMO bills further exacerbated the liquidity deficit.

Data from Cowry Asset Limited showed that while the Nigerian Interbank Offered Rate (NIBOR) declined across most maturities, overnight rates spiked, signifying acute illiquidity. The FMDQ platform confirmed that the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) climbed by 0.68% to 32.07%, while the Overnight Lending Rate (O/N) increased by 0.82% to 32.82%

The  Nigeria stock market witnessed fluctuating performance on Thursday as profit-taking across key equities resulted in a marginal decline.

 The All-Share Index (ASI) dipped by 0.06%, closing at 98,114.11 points from 98,174.99 points on Wednesday, erasing N36.90 billion in market capitalization to settle at N59.48 trillion. Despite this, the year-to-date gain remains strong at 31.21%. Profit-taking affected WAPCO (-2.05%), ACCESSCORP (-1.84%), ZENITHBANK (-1.68%), ARADEL (-1.48%), and FBNH (-0.38%). Market breadth was positive at 0.25x, with 34 gainers, 16 losers, and 72 unchanged stocks. Highlights included UPL leading gainers, REDSTAREX topping losers, and fresh 52-week highs for CORNERST, GOLDBREW, and NCR.

The Nigerian equities market ended Tuesday's session slightly bearish as profit-taking reversed gains from the prior day. The All-Share Index (ASI) edged down 0.03% to 97,702.56 points from Monday's 97,733.03 points, reflecting an N18.47 billion loss in market capitalization, which settled at N59.23 trillion.
Decliners: ARADEL (-8.72%), UACN (-2.44%), INTBREW (-2.44%), and STERLINGNG (-1.04%).
Advancers: 28 stocks posted gains against 22 losers, maintaining positive market breadth. Notable gainers included GOLDBREW, while SOVRENINS led the losers' chart.

52-Week Movements: WAPCO, SUNUASSUR, and CORNERST traded above their 52-week highs, while AUSTINLAZ fell to a new low of N1.88.

Nigeria’s federal government is facing increasing backlash from retirees as the struggle to clear a 21-month backlog of pension payments intensifies. Pensioners under the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS) have expressed frustration over the government’s inability to meet its obligations, despite recent improvements in key economic sectors.
The Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) has acknowledged the situation, explaining that pension payments are contingent on the availability of funds. In a recent memo to the National Union of Pensioners, the OAGF confirmed that allocations for the first half of 2024 had been released, but further disbursements remain uncertain, dependent on the availability of resources.
The unpaid pension liabilities have left retirees struggling financially, with many relying on the timely release of funds for basic living expenses. The union has demanded the immediate payment of the 21-month accrued rights from March 2023 to November 2024, as well as the long-overdue pension increments, including the 15% increase promised in 2007, 33% from 2010, and a 20-28% increase expected in 2024

Port Harcourt Refinery Resumes Operations, Fuel Price Drop Expected

The Port Harcourt Refinery has resumed operations, sparking optimism for a potential reduction in fuel prices by December. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) confirmed on Tuesday that the Old Wing of the refinery has begun processing up to 60,000 barrels of crude oil daily.

This milestone is seen as a significant move towards reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products and mitigating the soaring cost of fuel.

Presidential spokesperson Sunday Dare announced via his official X handle that approximately 200 trucks are now expected to load refined products from the facility, underscoring the refinery's pivotal role in meeting local demand.

In 2023, Lagos State emerged as the highest performer in Nigeria’s Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) rankings, generating an impressive N840 billion, a figure far surpassing that of any other state. 
Rivers followed closely with N203 billion, while Ogun State reported N146 billion, reinforcing the success of these states in building strong revenue generation structures. 
Delta and Kaduna states were also notable contributors, with IGRs of N99 billion and N62 billion, respectively.
Despite the impressive performances from these states, the data also highlights a concerning trend in Nigeria’s fiscal landscape. While a few states continue to show strong fiscal health, a significant number of states are struggling to generate sufficient local revenue. Edo, Oyo, and Kwara states brought in N59 billion, N51 billion, and N48 billion in IGR, respectively, signaling a gap in their revenue-generation capacities

Dangote Refinery has resumed the purchase of crude oil from the United States to ramp up refining capacity and production.
According to a Bloomberg report on Wednesday, the cargo conveying two million barrels of WTI Midland crude from Chevron Corp. is due to be delivered to the refinery next month.
The new purchase comes after a three-month hiatus in purchasing crude from foreign countries, focusing instead on domestic supply.
The latest development may be an indication that the naira-for-crude deal by the federal government may have stalled or that the refinery is not getting enough crude supply from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.
Dangote refinery purchased its first shipment of US oil after a hiatus of three months as the site continues to ramp up production.
“The plant purchased about two million barrels of WTI Midland crude from Chevron Corp.,” the report said

The Nigerian Naira has depreciated 438% in six years, plunging from N307 to N1652 per US Dollar. This has fueled 32.7% inflation, up from 11.4% in 2019. The decline is attributed to structural economic weaknesses, dwindling foreign exchange reserves, and global economic pressures. The situation has eroded purchasing power, deepened poverty, and worsened living standards.

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